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Robert Halbrook checks on neighbors whose Hermitage Avenue homes flooded, in the Ellendale area of St. Louis on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. "I've never seen it up to here," said Halbrook, who has lived in the area for over 30 years.
ST. LOUIS — In the early morning hours of July 26, many area residents awoke to floodwater filling their homes, or to the din of blaring car alarms from vehicles getting overtaken by murky brown water. Too much rain was falling far too fast.
The weather system dumped more than 9 inches on St. Louis — about a quarter of the city’s annual average — compressed largely within a few hours. That same week, torrential rain storms settled on Eastern Kentucky, where up to 16 inches fell and water rushed into people’s homes so swiftly that many didn’t get out in time.
Forty people were killed in Eastern Kentucky. Two people died in St. Louis.
Longtime residents in both regions, no strangers to severe storms and flooding, said they’d seen nothing like it before — and they’re right.
The rainfall totals obliterated previous records in each area by a margin that was difficult for some experts to fathom — topping St. Louis’ single-day record by more than 2 inches, for instance. It was yet another example that rain isn’t falling the way that it used to, with both the magnitude and intensity of extreme rain events increasing throughout recent decades, across a large part of the country.
The late-July storms that devastated St. Louis and Eastern Kentucky helped showcase the risks wrought by a climate that is growing hotter and wetter — and more prone to dumping massive rains and flash flooding on communities whose creeks, streams and drainage systems are not equipped to handle such volatile waters.
The shifting trends and escalating flood risk raises urgent questions about society’s readiness to cope with the change, as once-unheard-of rainfall extremes become more frequent.
“We are not doing enough. This last flood sure proves it,” said Bob Criss, a Washington University emeritus professor who studies regional flooding. “This problem is not going to get better. We’ve got to make it better.”
In the wake of July’s floods, the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk — a University of Missouri-based journalism partnership that includes the Post-Dispatch — asked climate data nonprofit Climate Central to analyze 50 years of rainfall patterns.
Findings showed that the eastern half of the U.S. is getting far wetter on average, with some areas — including parts of the Mississippi River basin — now receiving up to 8 more inches of rain each year than 50 years ago, based on data from the National Weather Service and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
A new analysis of federal data shows that average annual rainfall has increased as much as 8 inches throughout parts of the Eastern U.S. since 1970, including in areas within the Mississippi River Basin. Meanwhile, parts of the West have lost 6 to 7 inches of rain a year. Credit: Climate Central.
“Climate change models show further increases are likely in coming years,” said Climate Central data scientist Jen Brady, who helped with the analysis.
And when it rains, it pours: Not only is more rain falling, but it’s also falling harder in many places, like St. Louis, according to further analysis from Climate Central.
In St. Louis, data show that rainfall has grown more intense — with more water falling per hour — since 1970. Credit: Climate Central
The trend is largely tied to heat. As greenhouse gases from fossil fuels heat the Earth, that warming extends to the oceans and the Gulf of Mexico — a primary source of the atmospheric moisture for the Eastern U.S. Warming oceans produce more water vapor, and a warming atmosphere can hold more moisture, which can then deliver more precipitation in short windows of time.
”We’re getting warmer and we’re getting wetter,” said Pat Guinan, Missouri’s state climatologist and a professor at the University of Missouri. “We are in an unprecedented wet period.”
Recent decades have given rise to a stark divide seen across the continental U.S., with the western half of the country becoming increasingly arid and prone to drought, while the eastern half is faced with exceptional moisture, often delivered in bursts.
The Midwest is one region absorbing the brunt of all that water. Since 1958, the Midwest has seen a 42% increase in the amount of precipitation that falls during the most extreme events, said Ken Kunkel, a professor at North Carolina State University who studies extreme rainfall and is a lead scientist behind the federal National Climate Assessment report.
“The future will be characterized by more extreme events, simply because our source of water vapor will be hotter,” said Kunkel. “The system will have more fuel to work with.”
That helps drive risks of high water even in certain places set apart from increasingly flood-prone major rivers, with widespread flash flooding as a separate — and in some ways greater — danger.
“At this point, no community in the country is safeguarded from flooding,” said Laura Lightbody, director of the Pew Charitable Trusts’ flood-prepared communities project. “We’re seeing it flood in more places than ever expected before.”
Flash flood risk is shaped by more than weather alone. Pavement-heavy urban areas and places with constricted rivers or hilly topography compound the threat and are especially vulnerable.
Around St. Louis, even an inch and a half of rain in an hour can trigger localized flash flooding, with small urban tributaries swelling with stormwater far faster and more dramatically than the region’s major rivers. In St. Louis County, for example, creeks can rise as much as 10 feet in an hour.
Meanwhile, in one Appalachian town, the North Fork Kentucky River shattered its previous height record by more than 6 feet in July’s flooding, rushing in fast enough to destroy the U.S. Geological Survey sensor designed to monitor the river.
That explosiveness means flash floods can present a far more sudden threat to people and property than the gradual rise of rivers carrying water collected from afar.
”You can get caught by rapidly rising water and it’s hard to anticipate,” Kunkel said.
Flash floods are made even more dangerous by many densely developed and heavily populated urban settings, say experts like Criss, who in recent years has shifted his research focus more toward flash floods.
Such flood risks can vary widely from place to place, but can be especially pronounced in small, “flashy” watersheds that are unusually sensitive to bursts of incoming water. One of the epicenters of damage near St. Louis, for example, occurred along the upper stretches of the River Des Peres, a highly urbanized waterway that experts like Criss have identified as the most prone to flash flooding in Missouri, and have long voiced concerns over.
The river essentially acts as an urban drainage ditch, converted largely into a straightened concrete sleeve that can be easily overwhelmed with water funneled its way during storms — delivered more quickly and plentifully by all the surrounding pavement and other impervious surfaces.
It’s a combination that doesn’t mix well with more extreme precipitation — facing people and property with heightened flash flood risks.
Ryan Prince, 12, uses a water gun to remove water from his mother’s car which flooded in the parking lot of the University Commons Apartments in University City, on Tuesday, July 26, 2022.
“Intense rainfall is just making it all the worse,” said Criss. “[But] I don’t want to just blame the weather all the time. That makes it like we’re not responsible. ... There is plenty we can do in our local communities to improve the way we build and treat our creeks.”
Experts cite examples of precautions that range from pursuing buyouts of high-risk properties, limiting and corralling runoff, building water storage projects, and better floodproofing homes and basements.
Some similar risk factors are at play in rural Appalachia — another epicenter of this summer’s flood damage. There, rugged terrain leaves homes to be built almost exclusively along rivers and at the foot of mountains. Water travels quickly along the steep slopes to the residents below.
The region’s history of strip mining and mountaintop removal also contributes to the danger, because the damaged land is often unable to soak in water as it naturally would. Even remediated mine lands often consist of compacted soil and grass, which aren’t nearly as effective for flood mitigation as the forest that once occupied the land.
“It’s like pouring water on a tabletop,” explained Mary Cromer, of the Appalachian Citizens’ Law Center, who recently sat before members of Congress and painted the destructive picture of the flooding that put the law center and most of her town of Whitesburg under water.
A search and rescue team wades through Troublesome Creek in Eastern Kentucky, searching for flood victims in an area jumbled with debris on July 31, 2022.
More rainfall presents urgent challenges and imperatives: How can a city retool the built environment to withstand stronger flooding? How do people get out of harm’s way?
Most existing structures were built to withstand conditions and expectations based on what used to happen — not the climate trends happening today, nor future projections.
”Historical data is no longer a good predictor of the future,” Kunkel said. As a result, he adds, “we’re not building things to the level of resilience that we’d expect.”
In freshly flooded places around the U.S., various forms of recovery are underway — a process that could take a long time.
In Kentucky, residents were told to expect years of rebuilding. But some, like Cromer, worry climate change will make rebuilding a Sisyphean task, poised to repeat itself without certain changes and precautions.
“We know flooding like this will happen again,” she said.
This story is part of When it Rains, a special series from the Mississippi River Basin Ag & Water Desk, an editorially independent reporting network based at the University of Missouri School of Journalism in partnership with Report For America and the Society of Environmental Journalists, funded by the Walton Family Foundation.
Aubrey Barton holds onto her son Ronon after her family was evacuated from their Old Towne St. Peters home by first responders from Central County Fire and Rescue on Main Street following flooding from Dardenne Creek on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Robert Halbrook checks on neighbors whose Hermitage Avenue homes flooded, in the Ellendale area of St. Louis on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. "I've never seen it up to here," said Halbrook, who has lived in the area for over 30 years.
Workers try to clear drains to get water off of I-70 after record rainfall flooded the interstate, closing it and stranding cars at Mid Rivers Mall in St. Peters on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Photo by Gary Hairlson, ghairlson@post-dispatch.com
The entrance to Stray Paws Rescue on Depot Avenue in Old Towne St. Peters where ten puppies died in flooding on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Ceiling tiles and personal belongings float in chest deep water in what the basement bedroom of Heather Thiele's home in O'Fallon, Mo. on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Water from flash flooding poured in through the bedroom window and filled the room up to the ceiling, soaking the floor above as well. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
John Wieland washes his truck before floodwater completely recedes on Depot Avenue in Old Towne St. Peters on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Ryan Prince, 12, uses a water gun to remove water from his mother’s car which flooded in the parking lot of the University Commons Apartments in University City, on Tuesday, July 26, 2022.
"That's by car,"said Paige Campbell, red, who records video of her flooded car along Cabanne Avenue with her neighbor Casey Clemon on Tuesday, July 26, 2022, in University City. Overnight rainfall flooded basements, parking lots and first floor apartments in the complex. Photo by Laurie Skrivan, lskrivan@post-dispatch.com
A friend clears helps clear out Jim Hummel's flooded basement on Wednesday, July 27, 2022, along Hermitage Avenue in St. Louis. Photo by Laurie Skrivan, lskrivan@post-dispatch.com
James Stackhouse, 57, catches his balance after tripping while wading through floodwater to check on the condition of his friend's home along Mary Avenue in East St. Louis on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. His friend Maranita Logan's home had calf-deep water in it on the first floor. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
Houses along Mary Avenue in East St. Louis are surrounded by water on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
A ruined chop saw sits among the trash outside Michael's Flooring Outlet on Main Street in Old Towne St. Peters on Thursday, July 28, 2022. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Flooding overtook Goodfellow Boulevard on Thursday, July 28, 2022 as a thunderstorm dumped a lot of rain quickly, 2 days after record rains caused flooding in the region. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
A man helps two people walk through water after their car got stuck on Vandeventer Avenue underneath I-64 (Hwy. 40) in St. Louis on Thursday, July 28, 2022. Heavy rain saturated the area two days after record rain flooded parts of the region. Photo by Allie Schallert, aschallert@post-dispatch.com
Ernie and Nancy Carr sort through their soaked belongings at their home in the Ellendale area of St. Louis on Thursday, July 28, 2022. Shortly thereafter, heavy rain returned and flooded the Carrs' house again two days after overnight rain flooded many parts of St. Louis. Photo by Jack Myer, jmyer@post-dispatch.com
A University City police officer looks over the flooded 1200 block of Waldron Ave. on Thursday, July 28, 2022, after heavy rain created flash flooding that displaced cars and debris from the entire block. Photo by Christian Gooden, cgooden@post-dispatch.com
An employee with 1-800-Got-Junk checks the state of the water level from the company's property on Thursday, July 28, 2022, at the intersection of N. Skinker and Olive Boulevards. Heavy rain created flash flooding again in the area. Photo by Christian Gooden, cgooden@post-dispatch.com
A Metro bus plows through floodwater on Delmar Boulevard during a thunderstorm on Thursday, July 28, 2022. The storm caused flash flooding across the city. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
Brian Kreitner, a laborer, at Third Degree Glass Factory looks down at broken pieces of glass in the floodwater after a door holding back the water gave way and water rushed in the glass art studio knocking over displays and shattering artwork on Thursday, July 28, 2022. The storm caused flash flooding across the city. Photo by David Carson, dcarson@post-dispatch.com
"These tires used to be in the garage," said Anthony Saddler, who cleared itmes from his flooded basement on Friday, July 29, 2022, at his home along the 1100 block of Wilson Avenue in University City. Saddler basement and first floor took in heavy water. His home has been condemned since Tuesday evening. Photo by Laurie Skrivan, lskrivan@post-dispatch.com
Brinkley Sandvall, who flew in from Texas to help clean up her brother's flooded home, uses bleach water to clean toys on Friday, July 29, 2022, along the 1000 block of Wilson Street in University City. Photo by Laurie Skrivan, lskrivan@post-dispatch.com
Mia Henderson clears out carpet from flooded basement on Friday, July 29, 2022, along the 7000 block of Dartmouth Avenue in University City. More than a dozen of houses were flooded along the street from flash flooding Tuesday. Photo by Laurie Skrivan, lskrivan@post-dispatch.com
Mud-coated dolls sit in the backyard of the Hermitage Avenue home of Ernie and Nancy Carr following two floods of the River des Peres in Ellendale on Friday, July 29, 2022. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
John Ward takes a moment to pet Vickie Barton's dog Freya while emptying his wheelbarrow into a city-provided trash container in Ellendale on Friday, July 29, 2022. Thursday afternoon storms filled residents' streets and basements with water from the River des Peres for the second time this week. "If they'd come with a good buyout offer, I'm gone," said Ward, a 29 resident of Ellendale. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Larry Ball carries artwork from his apartment in the Reserve at Winding Creek Apartments in Hazelwood on Friday, July 29, 2022. Residents, many who were rescued by boat from the flooded complex on Tuesday, scrambled for moving trucks when told they had to vacate the complex by the end of the day. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
A family member of Kenquita Hawkins peers from a truck as neighbors pack up and leave the Reserve at Winding Creek Apartments in Hazelwood on Friday, July 29, 2022. Residents, many who were rescued by boat from the flooded complex on Tuesday, scrambled for moving trucks when told they had to vacate the complex by the end of the day. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Emergency Disaster Services volunteer Zachary Stephens of Kirksville, Mo. hands out granola bars to people waiting in line to get into a Multi-Agnecy Resource Center for flood relief at Centennial Commons in University City on Thurday, August 4, 2022. As they waited for hours in the heat, many seeking aid passed out and needed medical attention. Photo by Jack Myer, jmyer@post-dispatch.com.
President Joe Biden tours a neighborhood impacted by flooding, Monday, Aug. 8, 2022, in Lost Creek, Kentucky.
Ernie Carr, 76, carries away a two-day-old dehumidifier after Tuesday's flood that was destroyed in Thursday's second flood in Ellendale on Friday, July 29, 2022. Carr and his wife Nancy, who have lived in the neighborhood for 40 years, had just finished cleaning up more than 6 feet of water in their basement from the River des Peres Thursday morning.
Kasey Hawkins, 10, joins family members helping her aunt Kenquita Hawkins move from her apartment in The Reserve at Winding Creek apartments in Hazelwood on Friday, July 29, 2022. Residents scrambled for moving trucks when told they had to vacate the complex by the end of the day.
John Ward carts flooded contents of his Hermitage Avenue home to a city-provided trash container in Ellendale on Friday, July 29, 2022. Thursday afternoon storms filled residents' streets and basements with water from the River des Peres for the second time this week. "If they'd come with a good buyout offer, I'm gone," said Ward, a 29 resident of Ellendale. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
John Polezogopoulos, owner of 311 Wine House in Old Town St. Peters, takes a card from a Servpro representative as he takes a break from emptying his basement on Thursday, July 28, 2022. Polezogopoulos and his wife have been cleaning the damage themselves and he has been disappointed by the response of city officials. "Nobody's called, nobody's came by," he said, despite leaving messages at the mayor's office.
A watercolor of the exterior of the Old St. Ferdinand Shrine in Florissant is soaked as insurance and art restorers look over damage from flooding in July.
Insurance and restoration workers examine the altar as wood floors in the sanctuary of the Old St. Ferdinand Shrine in Florissant are left buckled from Tuesday's 32 inches of floodwater from Fountain and Coldwater creeks, seen after the water receded on Wednesday, July 27, 2022. Though the shrine has flooded numerous times in its 200 year history, the water has never passed the altar steps as it did this time. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
Matthew Robinson holds onto his dog Bebe as he and Kimberly Tat are rescued from their home by first responders from Central County Fire and Rescue along Main Street in Old Towne St. Peters after flooding from Dardenne Creek inundated the neighborhood during heavy rains on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. Photo by Robert Cohen, rcohen@post-dispatch.com
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Robert Halbrook checks on neighbors whose Hermitage Avenue homes flooded, in the Ellendale area of St. Louis on Tuesday, July 26, 2022. "I've never seen it up to here," said Halbrook, who has lived in the area for over 30 years.
Ryan Prince, 12, uses a water gun to remove water from his mother’s car which flooded in the parking lot of the University Commons Apartments in University City, on Tuesday, July 26, 2022.
A search and rescue team wades through Troublesome Creek in Eastern Kentucky, searching for flood victims in an area jumbled with debris on July 31, 2022.
In St. Louis, data show that rainfall has grown more intense — with more water falling per hour — since 1970. Credit: Climate Central
A new analysis of federal data shows that average annual rainfall has increased as much as 8 inches throughout parts of the Eastern U.S. since 1970, including in areas within the Mississippi River Basin. Meanwhile, parts of the West have lost 6 to 7 inches of rain a year. Credit: Climate Central.
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